Vietnam to Safeguard Agricultural Production and Exports Amid Global Trade Uncertainties

Global trade in 2024 remains a complex landscape characterized by geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and rising protectionism. In this volatile environment, Vietnam’s agricultural sector is a crucial pillar of economic stability. This article explores Vietnam’s strategic policy responses to safeguard agricultural production, the recent performance of agricultural exports, the country’s competitive advantages, and prospects for future trade expansion.

Agricultural stability becomes a priority for Vietnam’s government

Global trade in 2024 remains a complex landscape characterized by geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and rising protectionism. These challenges disrupt supply chains and increase uncertainties for exporters worldwide. In this volatile environment, Vietnam’s agricultural sector is a crucial pillar of economic stability, accounting for approximately 14 to 15 percent of the country’s GDP and employing a significant portion of the workforce.

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In May 2025, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh issued a clear directive to prioritize agricultural stability amid ongoing global trade uncertainties. The directive aims to ensure food security and protect the country from unpredictable outcomes of the ongoing trade negotiations with the US.

Official statistics indicate that Vietnam’s exports of agricultural, forestry, and fishery products totalled US$21.15 billion in the first four months of 2025, representing a 10.7 percent rise compared to the same period in 2024. This means that governmental direction is duty-bound to navigate the new US tariffs with political tact.

Strategic opportunity for sustainable reforms

Enhancing governmental roles in promoting sustainable agriculture

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs, PM Chinh views this period as an opportunity for Vietnam to implement sustainable reforms in the agricultural market, diversify Vietnamese products, and expand into new international markets. The PM has instructed relevant authorities to closely monitor international trade news and implement appropriate measures in response.

Competent ministries are responsible for keeping domestic businesses informed about the latest updates on import regulations and tariff changes abroad, enabling them to adjust their strategies effectively and support Vietnam’s economic and export goals.

The Vietnamese PM has assigned key responsibilities for envisioning sustainable agriculture as follows:

• The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MAE) will develop and implement plans to stabilize the production of essential agricultural products, including rice, coffee, and pepper, during peak harvest season;
• The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MIT) will supervise efforts to increase trade and expand export markets to reduce over-reliance on a limited group of trading partners;
• The Ministry of Finance will streamline customs procedures and VAT refunds, alleviate land rental and tax burdens, and propose sector-specific tax policies to enhance competitiveness in the domestic agriculture industry; and
• The State Bank of Vietnam is directed to possibly expand concessional loan programs aimed at supporting agricultural production and protecting farmers’ livelihoods.

Mekong Delta as a focal point for Vietnam’s sustainable agriculture

Particular emphasis has been placed on accelerating large-scale, sustainable, and eco-friendly agricultural projects, such as cultivating one million hectares of premium, low-emission rice in the Mekong Delta by 2030. The Mekong Delta ranks among the largest and most fertile river deltas in the world. Spanning roughly four million hectares, it sustains around 18 million residents whose livelihoods rely heavily on agriculture and aquaculture.

The Vietnamese PM has emphasized the importance of developing geographical indications for products, such as those produced in the Mekong Delta. This would enable Vietnamese produce to establish a stronger brand identity and implement robust traceability systems to mitigate risks such as origin fraud.

Vietnam’s key agricultural exports

Vietnam’s agro-forestry-fishery sector has shown steady growth in recent years, particularly in food production. In 2024, the sector reached a record export value of US$62.5 billion. This highlights why the Vietnamese government is highly concerned about the future of this industry.

In response to this concern, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Phung Duc Tien stressed that Vietnam has launched a sector-wide restructuring program, aligning agricultural, forestry, and fishery exports with market demands, traceability requirements, green economy principles, and international standards. “This has ensured steady growth in both output and export value,” he claimed. Preliminary figures for the first quarter of 2025 show a continued positive trend, with a 13.1 percent increase in agricultural exports compared to Q1 2024.

Rice

Vietnam exported over 9 million tonnes of rice in 2024, generating over US$5 billion in revenue. This represents an 11 percent increase in volume and a 24 percent increase in value compared to 2023. The average export price was estimated at US$627 per tonne, up 10.6 percent year-over-year. Vietnam’s top rice export destination in 2024 is the Philippines, which represents 46.1 percent of its total rice exports.

Coffee

Despite a 14 percent drop in export volume, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached US$5.2 billion in 2024, exceeding the US$5-billion mark for the first time. This achievement is attributed to rising global prices, which hit US$5,720 per metric ton in October 2024.

Fruits and vegetables

The sector recorded a 27 percent increase in exports, totaling US$7.1 billion. Durian exports, including frozen durians, experienced a 50 percent year-on-year growth to US$3.2 billion. Vietnamese bananas surpassed Philippine ones as the top choice for Chinese consumers.

Aquatic Products

Aquatic exports experienced significant growth, generating US$2.29 billion—an increase of 18.1 percent from the same period last year. The top markets for Vietnam’s seafood products included China (21.7 percent), Japan (15.6 percent), and the US (15.1 percent).

Vietnam’s competitive edges in agricultural production

Vietnam’s agricultural sector benefits from a combination of natural resources, technological advancements, and adherence to international standards, positioning it as a key player in global markets.

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Vietnam’s varied geography and climate zones—from the fertile Mekong Delta to the temperate highlands—allow for the cultivation of a wide range of crops year-round. This ecological diversity supports the production of staples like rice, coffee, and aquaculture products. Such conditions enable Vietnam to maintain high agricultural output and adapt to shifting global demands.

Vietnam has actively implemented smart agricultural practices, particularly in major export crops like rice and coffee. Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are utilized to monitor crop health, soil conditions, and climate patterns, thereby supporting data-driven decision-making and minimizing input waste. In collaboration with international partners like UNDP, the Vietnamese government has launched projects to scale up these technologies for small farmers, who are the majority of the agricultural workforce. For example, in Dak Lak province, a smart irrigation system, supported by the UNDP and installed on coffee farms, led to a 25 percent reduction in water use and a 15 percent increase in yields.

Outlook and potential markets for Vietnam’s agricultural exports

Strategic shift toward market diversification

Vietnam’s agricultural sector is increasingly focused on diversifying its export portfolio by tapping into new and emerging markets such as the Middle East, Africa, and Eastern Europe. This strategic pivot aims to mitigate the risks associated with overreliance on traditional markets while capitalizing on the growing demand for agricultural products in less saturated regions.

Opportunities in the Middle East

The Middle East represents a promising destination for Vietnamese agricultural exports, particularly in the segment of Halal-certified goods. To strengthen its presence in this market, Vietnam has actively engaged with regional partners to understand certification processes and market requirements.

Notably, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s visit to three Middle Eastern nations in 2024 culminated in a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Under this agreement, the UAE will gradually eliminate tariffs on 99 percent of goods imported from Vietnam. Vietnam, in turn, will phase out tariffs on 98.5 percent of goods imported from the UAE.

Leveraging free trade agreements

Vietnam’s robust network of 18 active and planned free trade agreements (FTAs) underpins its market diversification strategy. These include high-impact agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The FTAs serve to lower or eliminate tariffs, promote regulatory harmonization, and improve market access for Vietnamese agricultural exports. By reducing trade barriers and aligning standards, these agreements enhance Vietnam’s ability to enter and thrive in emerging economies.

Rising competitiveness within Southeast Asia

While Thailand has historically dominated agro-exports in the ASEAN region, recent trends indicate a shift. In 2024, Thailand’s imports of Vietnamese fruits and vegetables increased significantly, with frozen durian being a notable standout product. This development highlights Vietnam’s increasing competitiveness and evolving trade dynamics within Southeast Asia.

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Smith Taweelerdniti, the Managing Director of Nithi Foods, emphasized that Vietnam offers substantial tax incentives, attracting more investors compared to Thailand. The country has a large domestic market, and although wages are lower, the purchasing power remains robust. Simultaneously, Rungphech Chitanuwat, ASEAN Regional Portfolio Director at Informa Markets, noted that Vietnam has now surpassed Thailand in rice and fruit exports. She attributes Vietnam’s rise to proactive government policies, heavy investment in education, and significant infrastructure development. In contrast, Thailand continues to face challenges, including bureaucratic stagnation, inconsistent policies, and a rapidly aging population.

Conclusion

Vietnam’s forward-thinking policies and robust agricultural sector have demonstrated impressive resilience in the face of challenges. Despite ongoing external uncertainties, the country’s strong performance highlights its adaptability and determination. Looking ahead, consistent success and growth will depend on embracing innovation, expanding into diverse markets, and prioritizing sustainable practices to ensure long-term growth.

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